The article studies possibilities for analyzing geopolitical processes within the framework of situational analysis methodology using cognitive modeling. Situational analysis description is given, and scenario for developing events is presented where two stages are distinguished: a preparatory stage (a pre-scenario stage) which is essential for performing descriptive and explanatory functions of predictive research, and a scenario stage intended for substantive and formal research as well as for description of predicted processes, construction of system models and preparation of all significant information for scenario synthesis. Furthermore, a method for applying situational analysis is proposed to be used within the framework of the cognitive modeling toolkit of a “future scenario” option and its analysis with account of new “main” factors, relationships, feedbacks and dynamics of their alterations. When forming a scenario for a specific geopolitical situation within the framework of cognitive modeling, this method can be presented by causal (functional) and logical-semantic relation between the elements/agents of actions and counteractions. By interpreting the logical-semantic as structural, and the causal as dynamic, we obtain a structural-dynamic systemic description of geopolitical confrontation using the language of cognitive graphs, i.e. presenting a graphical expression of causal relationships between the concepts (factors) that characterize a particular geopolitical process. Thus, within the framework of a scenario stage the following procedures are conducted: analyzing the initial geopolitical situation, namely: determining key factors that build up the scheme of internal connections and external relationships, and their structuring; defining factors that make an impact; determining impact directions and force (positive and negative effect); choosing basic stereotypes or generalized models of interactions that correspond to the initial situation; constructing cognitive models of the current state of a situation; studying trends for the situation’s development and its dynamics analysis; transferring a scenario onto a practical basis.

Keywords: geopolitical processes, situational analysis, cognitive modeling, methodology for constructing predictive scenarios